Commodity experts and ag economists appear split on whether China will actually buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025.

Bloomberg said the pledge is underscoring a wider hope in the market that the fragile trade truce can hold on.

Traders said commercial and state-owned importers like COFCO will take more shipments in the weeks ahead.

Farm Journal’s November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said more than 75 percent of economists surveyed say China won’t purchase that amount of soybeans this year. Only 24 percent think they will.

Arlan Suderman, the chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the market is assuming something less than the full 12 million metric ton pledge. “I think the market has priced in expectations of eight to ten million metric tons, and they’ll take it during the marketing year between now and the end of August,” Suderman told Farm Journal.