Michiana could see above-average temperatures, slightly below-average precipitation and about 55 inches of snow this winter, according to the Storm Alert Weather Team’s 2026-27 forecast.

The outlook points to El Niño as a major influence on the season. El Niño is the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters near the equator. It can shift the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the country. In the Great Lakes region, strong El Niño conditions are often associated with warmer, drier winters.

The Storm Alert Weather Team reviewed nine winters that followed a weak La Niña and then a strong El Niño, a pattern similar to the one leading into this winter. Temperatures were above normal in seven of those winters, averaging nearly three degrees above normal. Precipitation was near or below normal in eight of the nine.

Snowfall varied: five winters had below-normal totals and four had above-normal totals. Overall, snowfall averaged nearly four inches below normal.

The team’s forecast calls for about 55 inches of snow this season, but lake-effect snow could change the total. One or two major lake-effect events can add substantially to Michiana’s snowfall.

A warmer-than-average winter does not rule out cold weather. About three-quarters of the comparable El Niño winters included temperatures below zero. Snow also fell in March or April in all but one of the years reviewed. The team says Michiana’s first snowfall could arrive later than normal this year.