Buoyed by an expected steady decline in inflation, an economic forecast from the I.U. Kelley School of Business is optimistic in projecting that the economy will slow modestly in the first half of 2024 and then reaccelerate in the second half of the year.

The Kelley School forecast predicts inflation will fall from an average of 3.9% over the past year to just 2.2% in the second half of 2024.

During the last quarter of 2023 and the first six months of 2024, real U.S. gross domestic product will slow to a rate of 1.6%.

It will then rise to 1.8% in the final two quarters.

The low point may come in the second quarter, when output growth is projected to be at a rate of 1.2%.