President Donald Trump will likely still carry Indiana Tuesday night. But, his victory in the Hoosier State may not be as large as it was four years ago.
“I think Donald Trump’s still gonna carry Indiana. I think when Barrack Obama carried Indiana in 2008, it was kind of a fluke. However, it seems like the president’s standing has eroded all over the Midwest,” said Kyle Kondik, a political scientist at the University of Virginia.
Kondik was a guest on WISH TV’s All INdiana Politics, and was brought in for some outside perspective on what Hoosier may do Tuesday.
“Maybe the margin in Indiana is gonna be lower than 2015,” he said. Trump won the state by 20 points.
Trump’s surrogate, Tony Samnuel, has predicted a 22 point victory for his boss. But, Kondik believes it will be lower and believes what is happening with the 5th Congressional District may be an indication.
That district, which includes the northern suburbs of Indianapolis, is a toss-up between Republican Victoria Spartz and Democrat Christina Hale, to replace Susan Brooks, a Republican. The district has traditionally been Republican.
“To the extent that the president underperforms in Indiana, the places you might see him erode the most include parts of Indiana 5, I think,” said Kondik. He believes that’s a reflection of what that kind of voter is thinking in the Midwest and to an extent, all over the country.
“The president’s losing ground in a lot of different places, but particularly in highly-educated districts, like Indiana 5.”
Over one and a half million Hoosiers have already voted, which is over half of the entire vote in 2016. Kondik believes it’s entirely possible that a winner for president won’t be decided by Wednesday morning.