Colder weather is moving into the Midwest, and one factor that will have big impacts on the winter weather for Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana is near-record warmth right now on Lake Michigan.

Warm weather in the past two months has kept temperatures higher than usual on most of the Great Lakes for this part of the year. Recent measurements of Lake Michigan show water temperatures in the mid-50s, and show an average surface temperature for mid-November that has only been warmer once, in 2016.

Warmer water means any push of arctic air could drop large amounts of lake-effect snow at higher rates.